时间:2025-12-02 07:42:57 来源:网络整理编辑:熱點
The zombie apocalypse won't take long.A new article in a peer-reviewed student journal finds that th
The zombie apocalypse won't take long.
A new article in a peer-reviewed student journal finds that the zombie hordes would take Earth's population down to a mere 273 survivors in 100 days.
The paper, published in the University of Leicester's Journal of Physics Special Topics, was a fanciful use of the so-called SIR model, which is used in epidemiology to simulate how diseases spread over time. It's not the first time zombies have been used as a public health metaphor. In December 2015, for example, the British medical journal The Lancetpublished a tongue-in-cheek paper titled "Zombie infections: epidemiology, treatment, and prevention." And a viral blog post from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged zombie-apocalypse preparations as a metaphor for real-life disaster preparedness.
SEE ALSO:Someone figured out the death totals on 'Game of Thrones' and 'Walking Dead'In the new analysis, the University of Leicester undergraduates assumed that each zombie would have 90 percent success at finding and infecting one human per day — a rate that would make the zombie virus twice as contagious as the Black Death, the plague that devastated Europe in the 1300s. [Zombie Animals: 5 Real Cases of Body-Snatching]
The researchers further estimated that each zombie could live 20 days without braaaaaains.
Assuming a starting population of 7.5 billion people, approximately the world's population today, the students calculated that it would take 20 days for a single zombie to start an epidemic of noticeable proportions. At that point, the pandemic would have begun. Assuming no geographic isolation, in fact, the human population would drop to 181 by day 100 of the epidemic, with 190 million zombies roaming around.
With some geographical isolation, the situation would be a tiny bit better for humans. Assuming the zombie virus had to spread through contiguous regions and that zombies were somewhat limited in their ability to travel (not leaving their current region until there were 100,000 zombies roaming there), human survivors would number 273 by day 100, the study found.
A more realistic model might assume that each zombie could find fewer human victims over time, the students wrote, because there would simply be fewer humans to find.
"We have also not included the possibility for the humans to kill the zombies," they wrote.
But never fear: In a follow-up paper, the students did just that. They extended the zombie life span to one year in order to up the challenge a bit, but also gave each human a 10 percent chance of killing a zombie each day. They also accounted for human reproduction, assuming reproductive-age women would be able to have a baby once every three years.
These assumptions provided some hope for humanity. Under this model, the human population rapidly dropped off to a few hundred again. However, the zombies died off after 1,000 days, under this model; 10,000 days after the beginning of the epidemic, the human population would start to recover again, the students found.
Darth Vader is back. Why do we still care?2025-12-02 07:39
英媒:羅傑斯是唯一解 他是曼聯帥位第一繼承人2025-12-02 07:36
國足戰阿曼首發進行恢複性訓練 朱辰傑詳解如何助攻武磊破門2025-12-02 06:40
意大利VS瑞士首發:若日尼奧領銜 基耶薩衝鋒陷陣2025-12-02 06:38
U.S. government issues warning on McDonald's recalled wearable devices2025-12-02 06:35
荷蘭球星斯內德社媒更新 :中國又進不了世界杯了?2025-12-02 05:38
搜狐體育獨家連線記者宋承良 :歸化政策兩年後就走不通了2025-12-02 05:33
加盟倒計時?皇馬50天後可接觸姆巴佩 冬窗或報價2025-12-02 05:22
Make money or go to Stanford? Katie Ledecky is left with an unfair choice.2025-12-02 05:02
國足積分榜 :2場不勝5戰僅拿4分 仍位列小組第五2025-12-02 04:57
Early Apple2025-12-02 07:38
重磅 !曝廣州隊歸化球員因欠薪 決定不參加第二階段中超聯賽2025-12-02 07:35
國足之外中國足球危機四伏 李鐵帥位難找頂替者2025-12-02 07:27
西媒 :阿圭羅心髒問題比預想的更複雜 恐被迫退役2025-12-02 06:58
New Zealand designer's photo series celebrates the elegance of aging2025-12-02 06:56
巴西VS哥倫比亞首發 :內馬爾熱蘇斯先發 薩帕塔出戰2025-12-02 06:35
聽狗的!傑拉德愛犬狂收球迷留言 勸他臨行三思2025-12-02 06:15
搜狐體育獨家連線記者王曉瑞 :國足為了整個行業該換帥2025-12-02 05:54
Katy Perry talks 'Rise,' her next batch of songs, and how to survive Twitter2025-12-02 05:15
阿根廷VS烏拉圭首發:梅西替補 迪巴拉勞塔羅出戰2025-12-02 05:14