时间:2025-05-01 14:54:29 来源:网络整理编辑:熱點
The zombie apocalypse won't take long.A new article in a peer-reviewed student journal finds that th
The zombie apocalypse won't take long.
A new article in a peer-reviewed student journal finds that the zombie hordes would take Earth's population down to a mere 273 survivors in 100 days.
The paper, published in the University of Leicester's Journal of Physics Special Topics, was a fanciful use of the so-called SIR model, which is used in epidemiology to simulate how diseases spread over time. It's not the first time zombies have been used as a public health metaphor. In December 2015, for example, the British medical journal The Lancetpublished a tongue-in-cheek paper titled "Zombie infections: epidemiology, treatment, and prevention." And a viral blog post from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged zombie-apocalypse preparations as a metaphor for real-life disaster preparedness.
SEE ALSO:Someone figured out the death totals on 'Game of Thrones' and 'Walking Dead'In the new analysis, the University of Leicester undergraduates assumed that each zombie would have 90 percent success at finding and infecting one human per day — a rate that would make the zombie virus twice as contagious as the Black Death, the plague that devastated Europe in the 1300s. [Zombie Animals: 5 Real Cases of Body-Snatching]
The researchers further estimated that each zombie could live 20 days without braaaaaains.
Assuming a starting population of 7.5 billion people, approximately the world's population today, the students calculated that it would take 20 days for a single zombie to start an epidemic of noticeable proportions. At that point, the pandemic would have begun. Assuming no geographic isolation, in fact, the human population would drop to 181 by day 100 of the epidemic, with 190 million zombies roaming around.
With some geographical isolation, the situation would be a tiny bit better for humans. Assuming the zombie virus had to spread through contiguous regions and that zombies were somewhat limited in their ability to travel (not leaving their current region until there were 100,000 zombies roaming there), human survivors would number 273 by day 100, the study found.
A more realistic model might assume that each zombie could find fewer human victims over time, the students wrote, because there would simply be fewer humans to find.
"We have also not included the possibility for the humans to kill the zombies," they wrote.
But never fear: In a follow-up paper, the students did just that. They extended the zombie life span to one year in order to up the challenge a bit, but also gave each human a 10 percent chance of killing a zombie each day. They also accounted for human reproduction, assuming reproductive-age women would be able to have a baby once every three years.
These assumptions provided some hope for humanity. Under this model, the human population rapidly dropped off to a few hundred again. However, the zombies died off after 1,000 days, under this model; 10,000 days after the beginning of the epidemic, the human population would start to recover again, the students found.
This 'sh*tpost' bot makes terrible memes so you don't have to2025-05-01 14:34
李磊留洋首次先發踢滿全場 12025-05-01 14:31
西甲資訊:皮諾上演驚天大四喜 國家德比時間確定2025-05-01 14:29
郵報:滕哈特正在學習英語 願在今夏前往曼聯執教2025-05-01 14:02
How Hyperloop One went off the rails2025-05-01 14:00
克洛普宣布2024年離開利物浦 本賽季全力爭四冠王2025-05-01 14:00
巴頓前往男足國家隊報到 力爭能留在出征名單中2025-05-01 13:53
比賽日 :隆東雙響埃弗頓22025-05-01 13:15
We asked linguists if Donald Trump speaks like that on purpose2025-05-01 12:57
海港冬訓訓練強度大 顏駿淩不休假取經沃克2025-05-01 12:19
Plane makes emergency landing after engine rips apart during flight2025-05-01 14:48
李磊留洋首次先發踢滿全場 12025-05-01 14:23
國足今日海口重新集結 將與中超球隊和U23男足熱身2025-05-01 14:12
球員30歲後進球榜:C羅霸榜梅西第4 唯萊萬場均1球2025-05-01 14:02
Xiaomi accused of copying again, this time by Jawbone2025-05-01 13:59
西甲主席炮轟阿布:切爾西在他手下像國有俱樂部2025-05-01 13:12
卡帥:中國足球不是很多人的首選 但我執教的恒大滿載榮譽2025-05-01 13:02
哈蘭德已決定加盟皇馬 戰艦擔憂其成為阿紮爾第二2025-05-01 13:00
Metallica to seek and destroy your eardrums with new album this fall2025-05-01 12:38
魯媒 :10多名球員入選兩國字號 嚴重影響泰山隊冬訓2025-05-01 12:09